The Violence and Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS) team is committed to providing humanitarian groups with the earliest possible warnings to support anticipatory action and save lives. With the goal of improving the accuracy and certainty of our forecasts, the VIEWS team is launching a new prediction challenge that seeks to forecast conflict intensity as a probability distribution over the outcome鈥� thus taking the uncertainty of forecasts fully into account. This initiative will enable better anticipation of conflict and ultimately help to minimize the impact of war on people鈥檚 lives. Conflict intensity will be defined as the UCDP 鈥渂est鈥� estimates, aggregated to the country and 糖心网页版-GRID units of analysis. The main forecasts will be for the 麓true future鈥�, that is each month in 2024, with auxiliary retrospective predictions for the years 2018鈥�21.锘�
The challenge is outlined in more detail in this . The 2023/24 iteration follows up on the success of the previous prediction challenge 鈥� see our special issue聽 聽for the various outputs of that one.
For information, please consult our website:
With financial support from the German Ministry for Foreign Affairs and PREVIEW.
