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German Chancellor Merkel is placed on top of Harpviken鈥檚 list this year for her remarkable response to this year鈥檚 refugee crisis. In a time when many have dodged responsibility, Merkel has and risen above politics, taking a in a difficult situation. Merkel may perhaps , and her stance has , but a collective European response to the current situation and handling of migrants and refugees in the future, at the helm. Jochen Bittner, political editor at Die Zeit, placed Merkel鈥檚 initiative in historical context when 鈥淚n the past few weeks, I have been tempted to say something once unthinkable for my generation: I鈥檓 proud to be German鈥�. (A group of German Members of Parliamant has indeed nominated Merkel this year, not for her refugee response, but for in Eastern Ukraine.)

Seeing as the refugee crisis has been one of the major situations in international politics this year, there are also others staking a claim. Harpviken listed the in his speculations of late January this year, and another candidate .

After 50 years of armed conflict in Colombia, a lasting peace agreement has never been closer. In recent months, the Colombian government and the FARC guerrilla have thrashed out , and set a date for its finalization. President Juan Manuel Santos, noted for his tough line on FARC from his time as Minister of Defence, and FARC leader Timole贸n 鈥淭imochenko鈥� Jim茅nez during the last rounds of talks in Havana. For the involved parties to set aside decade-long grievances in a conflict where is a grand achievement. While there is still some way to go, for the future political participation of the FARC movement, as well as a transitional justice system to be set up and for the guerrillas to lay down their weapons 鈥� for good. , and the Colombian peace process is increasingly looking irreversible. While both Santos and Timochenko are controversial figures, and each have their share of responsibility for past violence, the Colombian peace process should be a likely candidate for the Peace Prize, follows in a aline of other Nobel Prizes through history, and would definitely be in Nobel鈥檚 spirit.

Peace processes are underway elsewhere, such as Myanmar and the Philippines, and other candidates in the same category cannot be ruled out. Another possibility, however, is the nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1 鈥� although barely a peace deal in a conventional sense 鈥� where one could imagine a prize shared between () and ().

The in Russia, with the newspaper and its editor Dmitry Muratov impressively holding on to the principles of journalism, despite severe costs. Independent reporting and free media is widely seen to positively contribute to peace, holding governments and others accountable. In spite of this, no Nobel Prize has ever been awarded to the media. With for public expression, drawing attention to its few remaining independent media would send a strong signal. Dmitry Muratov was one of the founders of the Novaya Gazeta in 1993, and . The paper, which launched at the initiative of Mikhail Gorbachev (who devoted part of his Nobel Peace Prize money for the purpose), has since experienced the . Its website has been exposed to numerous .

There are other leading media outlets in Russia that could merit similar attention, including the radio station and the TV station , but Harpviken believes Novaya Gazeta 鈥� alongside Muratov 鈥� is the more likely candidate.

Institutions matter and constitutional principles matter, particularly when rooted in popular support. says that the state will abstain from 鈥榯he right of belligerency鈥�, and that it will 鈥榝orever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes.鈥� A large part of the population sees this non-aggression commitment as the for the last 70 years. In a region , there are concerns that last year鈥檚 and the subsequent 鈥楶eace and Security Preservation Legislation鈥�, passed in September this year, are precursors of armed confrontation. From previously limiting Japan鈥檚 military to self-defence, the new interpretation and bills . Additionally, Abe has announced an amendment of the constitutional article itself to take place in 2016. With a clear ruling bloc majority in both parliamentary chambers, the bills passed easily. There is strong opposition in the Japanese public, however, and a number of entities are working for the preservation of the clause as it is and reverting to the previous interpretation. One of them, which Harpviken sees as the most likely candidate for a Nobel Peace Prize, is the , set up by a group of nine senior academics and cultural personalities, including , a former Nobel laureate in literature. The same cause could also bring attention to other initiatives, including , and , who has been spearheading a civil society campaign to bring international attention to the threatened constitutional clause. Those working for the preservation of article 9 see international recognition 鈥� such as the Nobel Peace Prize 鈥� as important for what they perceive to be a basic national value. We may have come to think of wars between states as virtually extinct after the end of the Cold War, but events in Ukraine and simmering tensions in East Asia remind us they may reappear. A return to a principle often hailed in earlier periods of the Peace Prize would be well timed.

With armed conflict and war, sexual violence very often follows, both during and after actual battle action. Three individuals with a long-standing engagement against sexual violence are Mama Jeanne, Mama Jeannette and Dr. Mukwege from DR Congo. Through their church network, the two women have been involved since the early 2000s, leading the work of seeking out survivors of sexual violence all across the country, providing support and ensuring that they receive treatment and help. Gynaecologist Denis Mukwege, on the other hand, set up the in Bakuvu, dedicated to providing treatment to these women; has personally treated thousands of women and is today a leading expert on repairing the physical damage from rape and sexual violence. By awarding the trio鈥檚 local, grassroots and on-the-ground actions with a Nobel Prize, the Nobel committee has a chance to strengthen the visibility of sexual violence as a global problem.

There are a number of other possible candidates on the same topic, including , UN Special Representative on Sexual Violence in Conflict, and Colombia鈥檚 civil society group the 鈥�.

For the sake of transparency, it should be noted that 糖心网页版 researchers are collaborating with Mukwege and the Panzi Hospital for a research project on female empowerment.