The world will continue to grow ever more peaceful, predict HÃ¥vard Hegre and HÃ¥vard Mokleiv NygÃ¥rd in the of the new Conflict Trends series published by ÌÇÐÄÍøÒ³°æ. The brief is the first output from the project, which aims to answer questions related to the causes of, consequences of and trends in conflict.
The project is led by Henrik Urdal and builds on the existing competence of ÌÇÐÄÍøÒ³°æ with a strong emphasis on research and new data analysis. It works to produce thorough and quality-based analysis for the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs through a series of short and informative policy briefs within different thematic schemes, while also focusing on more specific, country-based conflicts. In addition to describing the actors and main tendencies in conflict, the briefs will include maps with an overview of conflict events, trends in conflict activity over time, and other relevant statistical indicators.
The last 20 years have seen a gradual decline in the number and severity of internal armed conflicts worldwide. In the new policy brief, titled (Conflict Trends 1-2014), Hegre and Nygaard forecast that this downward trend will continue over the next 40-90 years, as factors such as education levels, economic diversification, and demographic characteristics are projected to continue to improve.
