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Putin’s plan to stop Ukraine turning to the west has failed – our survey shows support for Nato is at an all-time high

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Bakke, Kristin M.; Gerard Toal; John O'Loughlin & Kit Rickard (2023) Putin鈥檚 plan to stop Ukraine turning to the west has failed 鈥 our survey shows support for Nato is at an all-time high, The Conversation. 4 January.

When Vladimir Putin sent his war machine into Ukraine last February, one of the reasons he gave for the invasion was to ensure Ukraine鈥檚 neutral status and prevent its government from moving the country further towards the west. Though there is more behind this war, the Russian leader has long expressed concerns about the possibility of Ukraine seeking closer military cooperation with Nato, with an eye to eventually joining the alliance. The 鈥渟pecial military operation鈥 aimed to stop this in its tracks.

But ten months of bloody warfare has had the reverse effect. There is now a larger Nato military footprint in Ukraine than ever before. Military support 鈥 from medical equipment to training and advanced weaponry 鈥 has exceeded US$20 billion (拢16.8 billion) from Washington alone.

This 鈥 and Russia鈥檚 inability to topple the Ukrainian government in the early days of the war 鈥 are widely accepted to be major strategic blunders by Russia. Putin overestimated the extent of Russia鈥檚 support among the Ukrainian people and underestimated the strength of Ukrainian national identity. But how has the war affected attitudes toward neutrality and Nato among ordinary Ukrainians?

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