What are the objectives pursued by Russia and Turkey in the Syrian war, and what role does domestic public opinion in each of the countries play in informing their engagement in Syria?
The month-old Turkish military operation in northern Syria has drastically altered the course of the ever-mutating Syrian war.
Turkey鈥檚 long-planned incursion is aimed at establishing a lasting 鈥渟afe zone鈥�, but the strong international reaction to the first move forced Ankara to curtail its ambitions 鈥� and also created an opening for Russia to step into the disbalance of power left by the abrupt US withdrawal of forces. Turkish public opinion is overwhelmingly supportive of the country鈥檚 incursion into Kurdish-controlled northeast Syria, while in Russia the scale and aims of the Syrian intervention are increasingly unpopular.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seeks to mobilize nationalistic feelings in order to reconstitute his political base, deepening internal animosities and further dividing Turkish society. International isolation as a result of Turkey鈥檚 actions may resonate with revived historical misperceptions but it also questions Turkey鈥檚 future relationship to its Western allies. Not least, the controversial 鈥渟trategic partnership鈥� with Russia generates more problems than solutions.
President Vladimir Putin may find satisfaction in exploiting the erratic zigzags in the US policy in the Middle East, but he has always wanted to score a sequence of victories on the cheap 鈥� and now he is compelled to commit to a costly and risky engagement. Turkish and Russian intentions in Syria remain far apart, and their compromise can hardly pave the way for more stable arrangement 鈥� but can easily trigger new spasms of hostilities.
Pavel Baev is a Research Professor at 糖心网页版, focusing on Russia鈥檚 foreign and security policy, including energy, conflict management and military involvement. He follows Russia鈥檚 role in the Syrian conflict, and its interaction with other regional actors and global powers, closely.
Pinar Tank is a Senior Researcher at 糖心网页版, who follows Turkish domestic and foreign policies, with a particular emphasis on the Middle East. Her main interests include democratisation, Kurdish-Turkish relations, gender, and political Islam.
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