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The world is falling miserably short of reducing carbon emissions in line with the , a 2015 treaty to keep global warming well below 2鈩�.

The results of this failure are a greater increase in the prevalence and severity of extreme weather events, more rapid sea-level rises and an elevated risk of triggering irreversible , like the collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet or the loss of the Amazon rainforest.

The speed and magnitude of these changes have immediate consequences for . Further, sustained climate change threatens fundamental dimensions of .

There are also frequent claims about looming 鈥溾��. These depict a chaotic world with unsustainable mass migrations, devastating weather-related disasters and violent clashes for survival in an era of rapidly diminishing resources.

However, the link between climate change and conflict is when compared to the main drivers of conflict, notably poverty, inequality and weak governance.

Instead, violent conflict in the context of a warming planet plays another and far more prominent role: it鈥檚 a critical driver of vulnerability, which makes adverse impacts from weather extremes more likely and more severe. In other words, violent conflict weakens communities and countries so that they are not in a position to adapt to the changing world around them.

Although it may be possible to maintain peace without successful climate adaptation, successful climate adaptation is impossible in the absence of peace.

How climate change affects conflict

Climate change is commonly framed as a that worsens conditions known to increase conflict risk, such as poverty and inequality.

Research shows that adverse climate conditions may lead to more . These conditions can also contribute to . This is particularly the case in places marked by climate-sensitive economic activities, political marginalisation and a history of violence.

Typical hotspots of such dynamics are found in the Sahel and rural East Africa. However, the true role of climate change in causing conflict in these settings remains . How climate shapes peace and security depends on how societies respond to climate change.

In a recent , my colleague and I outline several potential ways climate policy can be linked to drivers of conflict. These could, for example, be by way of addressing energy insecurity, financial vulnerabilities from altered tourism patterns or loss of oil revenues, and land-use competition related to environmental conservation projects.

These links have attracted little systematic study to date and remain a key priority for .

How conflict affects climate risk

The link from climate to conflict seems to be modest. But the reverse 鈥� from conflict to climate vulnerability 鈥� is very strong.

Armed conflict ruins economic activity and livelihoods. It threatens food security, obstructs markets and public goods provision, damages critical infrastructure and triggers forced displacement. All of these erode local capacity to cope and adapt to environmental hazards.

Put simply, armed conflict is . The consequence of the war in Ukraine on the in developing countries today is evidence that armed conflict can affect social vulnerability and human security at a global scale.

Given the devastating effect of conflict on coping capacity, it鈥檚 extremely worrying that violent conflict is in Africa. The continent is already judged to be the to the impacts of climate change.

Conflict, alongside the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, has also been identified as a major cause of in sustainable development. The most severe today are all found in countries suffering from major conflicts and wars.

A vicious circle

Each of the processes outlined above challenges sustainable development:

• violent conflict deters long-term growth and ruins local capacity to manage climate-driven risks
• climate impacts threaten human security in vulnerable societies, thereby increasing conflict risk.

Together, they may result in a of destructive effects.$$cdnImage image=735d748694224ef7bdca5f7e6119be9f.jpg width=1280 height=720 alignment=center