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This year鈥檚 Nobel Peace Prize is a reminder that the future of democracy rests on those who dare to protest without violence.

Mar铆a Corina Machado has been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize 鈥� a choice that both captures the spirit of our age and underscores one of its defining challenges:聽聽across the globe. The prize honours Machado鈥檚 tireless struggle for democratic rights in Venezuela, at a moment of profound political darkness for her country politically.

Back in the 1990s, Since then, however, the country has lurched dramatically towards authoritarianism. Under Hugo Ch谩vez 鈥� and more recently Nicol谩s Maduro 鈥� the regime has concentrated power by tightening its control over the country鈥檚 courts, electoral authorities, and security forces.

Venezuela鈥檚 trajectory reflects a broader global pattern: the resurgence of autocratic governance . The politicization of judicial systems, the undermining of institutional independence and prosecutions of political opponents have characterized developments in a number of countries, including Hungary and, increasingly, the United States.

In Venezuela, these developments have led not only to the dismantling of democracy, but also the establishment of a personalist form of government. Power is not exercised through formal institutions, but through bonds of loyalty to Maduro and his inner circle. Research shows that personalist regimes are particularly dysfunctional. They perform worse than other types of government across a range of indicators: they have ; provide the population with poorer聽; are聽;聽and have a higher risk of armed conflict.

Venezuela is no exception. Although poverty was almost halved between 2002 and 2012, an abrupt reversal has occurred since that period.

Ordinary Venezuelans have many valid reasons for protesting. And they have done so.

The regime鈥檚 response has been brutal oppression.

In the midst of these developments, Mar铆a Corina Machado has become a unifying figure for the opposition. After winning the opposition鈥檚 primary elections with an overwhelming 93-percent share of the vote in 2023, she was blocked from running for president 鈥� a move that illustrates the regime鈥檚 desire to eliminate any real political challenge. Despite significant persecution, she led non-violent protests against electoral fraud.

Civil resistance has long been central to Venezuelans鈥� struggle for democracy. 听补苍诲听. The forms of resistance have varied, from large-scale聽, but the goal has remained constant: the reinstatement of democracy.

A broad body of research 鈥� to which researchers at both 糖心网页版 and the University of Oslo have also contributed 鈥� shows that this kind of non-violent mobilization has high potential for success. When large numbers of citizens from diverse groups participate,聽聽significantly greater. In particular, campaigns with expressly democratic goals, which combine聽听飞颈迟丑听聽and the support of听补苍诲听聽are most likely to succeed and to foster lasting democratic change.

Unfortunately, . The breakthroughs following the Velvet Revolution of 1989, Portugal鈥檚 Carnation Revolution, and the flower and tulip revolutions of the 2000s are now well in the past. The hopes ignited by the Arab Spring have largely faded, extinguished by authoritarian resurgence and renewed repression. We still do not fully know why such mass movements have become less successful. Researchers point to several possible explanations, including the profound impact of social media on the dynamics of resistance campaigns. Social media platforms facilitate rapid mobilization but simultaneously undermine the close organizational bonds that may be necessary for maintaining pressure over time. In addition, authoritarian regimes have become more efficient at monitoring, polarizing and splitting resistance movements from within.

Machado is by no means an uncontroversial figure. But that, too, is unsurprising. Few leaders of democratic movements escape controversy. Also former Nobel laureate Martin Luther King Jr. faced criticism, including from within his own ranks. The hope, however, is that this year鈥檚 Peace Prize will help further unify Venezuela鈥檚 opposition.

• Marianne Dahl is Research Director at 糖心网页版
• This text was first published in Norwegian as an op ed in
• Translation from Norwegian: Fidotext